Black Friday and coronavirus: will it affect Christmas sales?

Months have passed and we still have to fight the pandemic. 

We knew it was going to be tough at all levels; some people have even had to reinvent themselves, explore other business models and a different way of doing things. But now, with Christmas campaign coming up, bigger and bigger questions are being asked.

It is no secret that coronavirus has posed new challenges for eCommerce. During the months of confinement, it has even profoundly transformed the consumer and their purchase habits.

In the midst of all this, and already with the certainty of a second wave of COVID-19, we are standing in the last quarter of the year with the need to prepare for the Christmas campaign and Black Friday. How will the coronavirus affect the results?

Taking into account what we already know and the expectations, we can make some projections that seem very clear. It is worth stopping a moment to think about it and thus prepare our business for what is to come. 

We have given some thought to the possible scenarios that are simmering out of sight as we follow the evolution of the outbreaks in the news. And these are some of the conclusions we have come to.

No matter how important this "commercial holiday" has become, the truth is that in Spain it has not been normal to see huge queues of people waiting for the stores to open and rush into - as it does in the United States.

Even so, the big department stores and many Spanish retailers have a much higher concentration and turnover of visitors during Black Week. 

This year, we must assume that this will most likely not be the case - both because of possible measures taken by institutions (especially capacity reductions) and because of customers' fear of crowds.

So eCommerce is going to be ready for increased online competition. It is the only way for brands to save the season, and they will invest whatever they have in this channel.

Take advantage of the fact that you are in your environment and that you know how it works better than they do to take advantage of this situation. 

Let's not fool ourselves: customers are very directly affected by price when making their purchasing decisions. Let's just say it is one of the most important purchase drivers.

The success of dates such as Black Friday or Cyber Monday lies in the possibility of saving significant amounts of money in the run-up to Christmas. And this, in a way, disrupts seasonality, turning the Christmas season itself -understood as the period between Black Friday and Christmas itself- into a period between sales.

Add to this that we are facing a situation of economic uncertainty and you will have the most favorable situation for the fight is in the price more than any previous year.

In this context, the average customer has rethought their priorities and needs. In previous editions, Black Friday was a time of whimsy: the moment to buy those products that are not exactly of first necessity but that we want, and to do it at a price that does not make us feel guilty.

Reflexivity will be very present in the decisions taken this year. As we said before, the price will be important, but the type of purchase that will be made will be almost more important.

During the confinement, we saw some niches growing at a good pace. This can set the tone for where the trends are going to go: personal care products, home entertainment and equipment to make the home more comfortable. 

The months we have spent indoors have brought to light needs that we did not contemplate, or have reorganized those that we did take into account.

Let´s go back to the essence of Black Friday, which had much of an excuse to dispose of surplus stock, it is foreseeable that in 2020 there will be an even greater amount of surplus stock to be disposed of. 

Businesses that have found themselves with full warehouses during the months of confinement need to release those products. And, predictably, a single day's supply will be too short for that. 

This is going to reinforce the trend - which we were already seeing - of having a Black Friday that extends several days (or weeks) before and after.

Now we propose a new scenario in which Black Friday and coronavirus together, preparing a perfect storm. We will see if courier can take charge of a peak that promises to be very marked, and unprecedented. 

If you have not already done so, now that October has just begun, it could be a good time to close deals with several courier companies that will allow you to be agile when it comes to making your deliveries online in a reasonable amount of time.

Remember that, during the lockdown, companies such as El Corte Inglés or Ikea died of success due to the enormous logistical demands of the time.